OK, the people of New Hampshire have spoken. Their message: I am a crappy prognosticator. And yes, I have heard them loud and clear, but I’m not done fighting! Much like John Edwards, I will continue to get my butt kicked all the way to the convention!
In other news, I’ll confess I was shocked when Romney came out of Iowa saying “I’m the outsider candidate of change.” Clearly, he had seen what worked for Huckabee and Obama, and was baldly swiping their message.
Anyways, because of that, I was much less shocked tonight when, in his concession speech, he said, “Hi, my name is John McCain and/or Hillary Clinton.” You really have to respect somebody that straightfoward.
Blog
-
Miscalling New Hampshire
-
Calling New Hampshire
I’m doubling down today — echoing my Iowa call by tagging New Hampshire as Obama and, yes, Mitt Romney country. I’m going against the polls a little on Romney, figuring Obama will draw the independents away from McCain. Also, McCain’s snickering digs in the ABC debate undermined his all-American-hero brand. But it’ll be close.
I’m also going with one “dear friends” and four “my friends” in McCain’s speech tonight.
Any other calls out there….?
Update: I’m not looking like a particularly great prognosticator at this point. In fact, I may have gotten it precisely wrong, if independents went for McCain in waves and left Obama in the lurch… But I still think I’ll do well in the “dear friends”/”my friends” derby. -
This Coming Sunday: The Homeworld World Premiere in Moraga
A while back, my better half worked on a full-length independent science fiction feature called “Homeworld.” Well the movie’s now done and ready for it’s world premiere — this coming Sunday, January 13th. The tickets are free, and the theater is pretty huge, so we’re encouraging one and all to come and join us for the event. I’ll be the one who looks like the picture over on the right, only without the goatee and with both a top and a bottom part to my head.
Here’s all the info:
When: January 13th, 2008 @ 5PM
Where: Rheem Theater 350 Park St., Moraga, CA 94556
Admission: Free
Rating: Not rated yet, but think “PG.” Kids are welcome.
More info, including directions: Homeworld Site
Hope to see ya there! -
Susan Estrich’s “Iowa Doesn’t Matter” Meme
Susan Estrich, on Fox last night, put out an interesting piece of misinformation, asking “When was the last time a first-time Democract won Iowa and went on to win the presidency.” The answer, it turns out, is 1976 (forgetting for a moment the oddity that in ’76 Carter was actually beaten by “uncommitted).
Her implication was that Obama’s victory isn’t significant because the Iowa winner almost always loses. “Wow — so I guess Iowa doesn’t really matter does it? Good to know.” Um. Not quite. -
Election reflection: in which I coin the word “underpunditizing”
One thought this happy night. I think this is (even) bigger than race. The pundits are underpunditizing(tm) this thing when they make that the focus. The impulse to support Obama comes from a massive hunger to stop the madness, to save this country, to tame all those hatreds, to learn the lessons of Bosnia and Serbia and Shiites and Sunnis, to dig deep and steer this raft away from the waterfall. We can hear the waterfall. We can see the spray. Dig deep.
OK, two more thoughts: -
Calling Iowa
OK, time to wander out on that limb. At 8:58 am on Wednesday the 3rd, based on, well, very little, I’m calling Iowa for Obama (largely because I wish it so) and Romney (organization).
Fortunately, I can edit this post tomorrow if I get it all wrong.
Any other predictions out there? -
An Interview with Adrian Belew, Part Three
Photo credit: Image courtesy of Daryl Darko.
Welcome to the conclusion of this three-part interview with guitarist, singer, and songwriter Adrian Belew. If you’re just jumping in, be sure to hop back to the start to hear Belew talk about collaborating with King Crimson and the Bears, why the last two years have been so productive, and how he lets goes creatively.
Adrian Belew on the Web: Adrian Belew.net, Elephant Blog, Side Four
Cecil Vortex: Is there anything you’ve learned about the creative process that’s surprised you?
Adrian Belew: I’m impressed to see that if you work really hard at something, it does eventually pay off. And nothing in my life has proven that to me as much as the creative process. Sometimes you do have to work at it; it doesn’t always just flow out of you like lava. Sometimes you really do have to sit and [say], “How am I going to make this work? What can I do?” And really go deep within yourself or at least concentrate to such a degree that it gets tiring, you know? So I’m kind of amazed that the process works and that it’s still working.
CV: Have you gotten any advice about creativity that particularly stands out? -
Democrats and Republicans
I was thinking the other day (and as an aside, shouldn’t virtually all blog entries really start that way?), that both the Democratic and Republican parties are driven by the strong desire to learn the lessons of the 1930s — to avoid the catastrophic mistakes that led to World War II. The Republicans are afraid of the U.S. becoming Neville Chamberlain’s England — the infamous appeaser state. Meanwhile, we Democrats are afraid of the U.S. trying really hard to avoid becoming Neville Chamberlain’s England and in the process becoming Germany.
So, basically, we’re afraid of Republicans.
(And this, by the way, is why I heart Obama. My fondest wish for this election is a leader who doesn’t fear or dislike half the country.)
Happy new years to ya,
-Cecil -
An Interview with Adrian Belew, Part Two
Photo credit: Image courtesy of Daryl Darko.
Welcome to the second part of this interview with guitarist, singer, and songwriter Adrian Belew. If you haven’t already read the first part, you can find it here.
Be sure to also check out the third and final segment, in which Belew talks about the value of setting up obstacles, what excites him in other people’s music, and how he recently joined forces with two kids who don’t have driver’s licenses yet to form the Adrian Belew Power Trio.
Adrian Belew on the Web: Adrian Belew.net, Elephant Blog, Side Four
Cecil Vortex: Do you remember when you first started writing songs?
Adrian Belew: At age sixteen I contracted mononucleosis in high school and was forced to stay at home and be tutored for two months. And the requirement was that you be inactive. I was a drummer, and I could no longer drum. I had always had songs in my mind that would just appear, and I could kind of hear them full on as though a record was playing. So I decided to take those two months and teach myself to play guitar.
I borrowed an acoustic guitar from one of my band members, and by the end of the two months I had written five songs and put them on tape. I do remember little bits of pieces of them, but I couldn’t even tell you the melodies or titles.
CV: The tapes are long gone?
AB: I’m afraid so. I wish they weren’t. They’d be on my website right now.
CV: Were you surprised at how quickly you picked up the guitar?